From The Rembau Times
Thanks Judge Wenger Khairy
There were a couple of interesting things that happened this week that may have missed your attention. The first had to do with Qatar's decision to supply 1.5 m tonnes of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to Petronas to make up for our depleting natural gas reserve stock, starting in 2013. This should amount to probably US$1 billion a year. The second had to with the "election" rumour mill starting to go into overdrive, with TSMY saying that the 13th General Election was only a few months away. The third is due to a weakening macroeconomic situation n the globe with growing concerns being expressed about the state of the Eurozone economy. Singapore's year-on-year Q2 GDP growth was only 0.5%
These three things are important because it tells us certain things. Firstly, the LNG Gas deal tells us that over the longer term, Malaysian households will continue to face a higher cost of living, as we have literally burnt thru stocks of gas that were in our country and now have to import energy from overseas. The third point says that going forward, the growth picture for Malaysia does not look rosy at all. If you consider that in 2008, the commodities market was in a super bull run with palm oil prices at RM 3,800/tonne and oil at USD 120, the economic growth was robust at 6.5%, and yet the Government suffered a severe backlash . The question Najib has to decide is whether or not the risks of waiting out a bit longer is worth the benefit of escaping from the current mess the Government in?
The answer to that will determine whether or not Muhiyiddin is telling the truth or merely expressing his desire to see an earlier election . The result I believe is for gone conclusion - BN would retain the Government but with a reduced majority. BN will gain back a majority of the PKR seats, especially those with a 20% or more Indian representation - about 10 in all, but at the same time, would lose 14 of the MCA seats it currently holds, plus another 10 from the Chinese seats in East Malaysia.
The question then becomes - how will a fight between UMNO and PAS turn out? Will UMNO be able to preserve its position, gain perhaps 30% of the seats PAS currently holds or even in the nightmare scenario, actually lose 10% of its seats to PAS.
If you follow the maths above, the shift of Non Malay seats to Pakatan will give Pakatan an additional 14 seats - so now the situation looks something like Pakatan 92, BN 130. Now consider the impact this has to Najib. Try as he might - and believe me, he is trying very hard, even to the extent of drumming up the "colonial" bogeyman - he will not be able to spin this result away. The results will prove to the UMNO power brokers that really, since the only people who support UMNO are the Malays, shouldn't the Government then reflect the wishes of its voting constituents and usher in an ultra Malay Government led by TSMY?
So now perhaps you understand why TSMY is so eager to hold an election. The PM's position post a result will be indefensible.
Of course Najib knows all that I have told you - and since calling an election this year would mean the end of his premiership, he would not call it. Thus by that logic, we can read TSMY's statement not as him expressing the wishes of the existing Government of Najib but instead, his Government in waiting.
(There is already a Facebook page calling for Muhiyiddin to become PM. Its the first open assualt thru a soft channel. The FB page is over here http://www.facebook.com/pages/Kami-Sokong-Muhyiddin-Sebagai-Perdana-Menteri-Malaysia/168360329900258?sk=wall )
The reason behind Najib's failure is down to Perkasa. Right from the start Perkasa undermined his message of unity, and instead provided a solid ground for TSMY to differentiate himself from Najib and at the same time ensure Najib was bound to fail in recovering the Non Malay vote. In a way, you could say it was very smart of TSMY to do that. He perhaps had the entire strategy planned from day #1, and all he had to gamble on was Najib's reluctance to come down hard on Perkasa.
Now that bet is a sure winner.
Of course, there exists a small possibility that TSMY's strategy will end up "makan diri." His strategy of using Perkasa was so effective that it radicalized a whole swathe of society against the Government - the young Malaysians of all races, the middle class Malays, the entire Chinese demographic, and perhaps most worryingly - the people of East Malaysia.
Given the backdrop of poor economic growth ahead, higher inflation and really a very tight labour market where there is not much scope for improved wages, the segment that is against the Government will continue to grow. In the meantime, Najib will play a waiting game whilst TSMY agitates for a repeat of the sequence of events that led to Pak Lah's downfall.
Najib's current go forward strategy is to try and position himself in the ultra segment. This would perhaps mean an end to the New Economic Model experiment - reducing chances for future growth by increased foreign investment. I also expect - and this will be a classic Wenger Khairy First in the World prediction - I expect that the current MRT deal will be changed with new partners brought in. That's why for all the talk, pomp and splendor - have you actually seen the MRT project being launched at the work site?
Malaysia requires a new approach to do business. The current method of letting people like Mukhriz Mahathir open up a business with a Chinese partner and getting Government contracts, in the name of "Agama, Bangsa and Tanahair" is difficult to sustain in the future because the country has only limited sources of financing. And the same time, the Non Malay business sector should also shed their chauvinism and practice the racial equality they demand from the Government. With either party refusing to compromise, the economy as a whole is like a car stuck in 2nd gear - and each side getting more entrenched in their views. UMNO responds by making institutions like the Police, the AG and the MACC partisan in nature. The Non Malays respond by restrictive hiring practises and discriminatory terms of trade with Malay businesses.
Will there be a breakthrough over the next couple of years? Can people of differing races, religions, socio economic status actually get so pissed at the Government that they are willing to put aside their differences, compromise and fight the regime?
These three things are important because it tells us certain things. Firstly, the LNG Gas deal tells us that over the longer term, Malaysian households will continue to face a higher cost of living, as we have literally burnt thru stocks of gas that were in our country and now have to import energy from overseas. The third point says that going forward, the growth picture for Malaysia does not look rosy at all. If you consider that in 2008, the commodities market was in a super bull run with palm oil prices at RM 3,800/tonne and oil at USD 120, the economic growth was robust at 6.5%, and yet the Government suffered a severe backlash . The question Najib has to decide is whether or not the risks of waiting out a bit longer is worth the benefit of escaping from the current mess the Government in?
The answer to that will determine whether or not Muhiyiddin is telling the truth or merely expressing his desire to see an earlier election . The result I believe is for gone conclusion - BN would retain the Government but with a reduced majority. BN will gain back a majority of the PKR seats, especially those with a 20% or more Indian representation - about 10 in all, but at the same time, would lose 14 of the MCA seats it currently holds, plus another 10 from the Chinese seats in East Malaysia.
The question then becomes - how will a fight between UMNO and PAS turn out? Will UMNO be able to preserve its position, gain perhaps 30% of the seats PAS currently holds or even in the nightmare scenario, actually lose 10% of its seats to PAS.
If you follow the maths above, the shift of Non Malay seats to Pakatan will give Pakatan an additional 14 seats - so now the situation looks something like Pakatan 92, BN 130. Now consider the impact this has to Najib. Try as he might - and believe me, he is trying very hard, even to the extent of drumming up the "colonial" bogeyman - he will not be able to spin this result away. The results will prove to the UMNO power brokers that really, since the only people who support UMNO are the Malays, shouldn't the Government then reflect the wishes of its voting constituents and usher in an ultra Malay Government led by TSMY?
So now perhaps you understand why TSMY is so eager to hold an election. The PM's position post a result will be indefensible.
Of course Najib knows all that I have told you - and since calling an election this year would mean the end of his premiership, he would not call it. Thus by that logic, we can read TSMY's statement not as him expressing the wishes of the existing Government of Najib but instead, his Government in waiting.
(There is already a Facebook page calling for Muhiyiddin to become PM. Its the first open assualt thru a soft channel. The FB page is over here http://www.facebook.com/pages/Kami-Sokong-Muhyiddin-Sebagai-Perdana-Menteri-Malaysia/168360329900258?sk=wall )
The reason behind Najib's failure is down to Perkasa. Right from the start Perkasa undermined his message of unity, and instead provided a solid ground for TSMY to differentiate himself from Najib and at the same time ensure Najib was bound to fail in recovering the Non Malay vote. In a way, you could say it was very smart of TSMY to do that. He perhaps had the entire strategy planned from day #1, and all he had to gamble on was Najib's reluctance to come down hard on Perkasa.
Now that bet is a sure winner.
Of course, there exists a small possibility that TSMY's strategy will end up "makan diri." His strategy of using Perkasa was so effective that it radicalized a whole swathe of society against the Government - the young Malaysians of all races, the middle class Malays, the entire Chinese demographic, and perhaps most worryingly - the people of East Malaysia.
Given the backdrop of poor economic growth ahead, higher inflation and really a very tight labour market where there is not much scope for improved wages, the segment that is against the Government will continue to grow. In the meantime, Najib will play a waiting game whilst TSMY agitates for a repeat of the sequence of events that led to Pak Lah's downfall.
Najib's current go forward strategy is to try and position himself in the ultra segment. This would perhaps mean an end to the New Economic Model experiment - reducing chances for future growth by increased foreign investment. I also expect - and this will be a classic Wenger Khairy First in the World prediction - I expect that the current MRT deal will be changed with new partners brought in. That's why for all the talk, pomp and splendor - have you actually seen the MRT project being launched at the work site?
Malaysia requires a new approach to do business. The current method of letting people like Mukhriz Mahathir open up a business with a Chinese partner and getting Government contracts, in the name of "Agama, Bangsa and Tanahair" is difficult to sustain in the future because the country has only limited sources of financing. And the same time, the Non Malay business sector should also shed their chauvinism and practice the racial equality they demand from the Government. With either party refusing to compromise, the economy as a whole is like a car stuck in 2nd gear - and each side getting more entrenched in their views. UMNO responds by making institutions like the Police, the AG and the MACC partisan in nature. The Non Malays respond by restrictive hiring practises and discriminatory terms of trade with Malay businesses.
Will there be a breakthrough over the next couple of years? Can people of differing races, religions, socio economic status actually get so pissed at the Government that they are willing to put aside their differences, compromise and fight the regime?
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| Anarchy Is Contagious |
Bersih showed that for a certain segment - this is a possibility. As Najib continues to run as fast as he can to the right, resulting in a lack of credibility to his style of governance and slow economic growth, this segment may actually expand to the point that succeeding Najib as President of UMNO would not mean succeeding Najib as Prime Minister
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