The other day, I watched the late night news on TV3. It ran an interview it had with DPM, Muhyidin Yassin. The DPM says it’s an uphill battle for UMNO and BN. I say man- UMNO leaders are contradicting each other. Two vice presidents say UMNO is ok. The deputy president says, not so ok. One of them must be lying. Or- if they are saying something that’s opposite to what Muhyidin says, they mean UMNO is going downhill.
I have written an earlier article giving out what I thought some warnings to UMNO and BN. This time I didn’t write on how I think UMNO and BN can lose- I wrote instead the other way round- how Pakatan can win.
As expected, it didn’t go down well with UMNO people. That’s of no importance to me. UMNO thinks it can corner the rural votes. Maybe they can and do, but every time Anwar Ibrahim who is bombarded with sexual allegations at every waking hour wants to hold a ceramah umum in rural areas, UMNO goes on super panic mode. It uses all the repressive instruments of the state- the police, army, Rela people to prevent Anwar speaking.
Apa pasal? I say, let the damaged good do his thing. People are intelligent enough- they read newspapers and other media instruments to be able to make proper judgment. And you have all the UMNO cybertroopers around to make sure Anwar is crucified with new information about his sexual trysts and China doll and what not. And you have Quiet Despair to anchor a more cerebral and spirited rendition of Anwar’s persecution. Don’t worry; we will give him as much space as possible here.
I think Muhyidin this time around speaks with a touch of realism. Maybe he refuses to be bamboozled with over optimistic JASA reports – I saw some of them especially on Pahang and I was laughing. Were they written while drinking kopi tiam or eating keropok lekor? Or were they written while sitting on the bed at home? Those suckers at HQ won’t be able to tell the difference.
Muhyidin must be thinking about his home state too. Ong Kah Ting is not going to contest. His seat may go. Hishamudin is retreating to Kota Tinggi. That means Syed hamid Albar isn’t contesting anymore as he is no longer winnable. Sembrong is gone. Bakri seat is another area that’s losable. Subramaniam can say bye bye to Segamat. Pasir Gudang is another parliamentary seat that looks shaky. Johore will remain a bastion for UMNO still, but a few more parliamentary seats are gone. The labis seat, Pulai seat, Gelang Patah seat, are all at risks. If Shahrir does not stand in JB, that seat will migrate too. These may not all go to PKR but DAP is set to take over some of these seats. The opposition may increase their parliamentary presence from the current 1 to 7 seats.
There’s one commentator (Quiet Despair) who thinks PKR cannot win any parliamentary sets in Sarawak. The SUPP seats will all go to DAP. As to PKR, allow me to cite one observation passed to me by the Oracle of Syed Putera. He was commenting on the Sarawak state elections then. The victory of 100% by PBB candidates (its record is thus anytime better than UMNO’s) wasn’t unexpected. The Oracle wasn’t interested to speak on what the mainstream newspapers were screaming haughtily regarding the victory. He was more concerned about the victory by PKR in the Sarawak state elections. Anwar Ibrahim with all the assassinations carried out on a daily basis, managed to assist Baru Bian get 3 seats! What do the wins represent? Unless UMNO people are sleeping or are busy shashaying in the lobby of Concorde Hotel and cockily holding fort in the coffee house, the wins tell us, the opposition can win. PKR made inroads in Dayak grounds. And Oracle must be mimicking Daim Zainudin.
Then the news about the sacking of one ADUN from SPDP came. SPDP has 4 parliamentary seats. The sacking shows there are dissension with the SPDP and may result in election losses. With the SUPP gone, PBB is banking on SPDP and PRS which has 6 seats. The two have 10 seats between them; a number of these will fall to PKR. The oracle was even saying, at this moment, Daim thinks, the Opposition has 16 seats in the bag from Sarawak.
This thing about saying that someone is over the hill and past the time, is haunting the UMNO people. Yet they forget repeatedly to shut their mouth. Before 2008 Daim Zainudin was saying that BN will lose 5 states. Everyone was saying he’s past his prime and over the hill and other unmentionables. This time he’s more or less saying the same thing.
That’s why the Oracle says, the UMNO people are sleeping when they dismissed the few seats won by Baru Bian in the Sarawak state elections. That’s just a precursor of worse things to come.
That’s how I see the GE13.
Now, let’s get back to what Rahim Tamby Chik said in an UMNO forum. Rahim Tamby Chik( RTC) has now achieved political significance that he couldn’t achieved before- being mentioned in the same bandwidth as Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. Otherwise, as we know, hehe, Rahim is mentioned and associated more with less than regal extra-political pursuits. He is deep and down you know.
We now come to the most interesting bit about Rahim’s political imagination- Tengku Razaleigh being invited to become the PM.
In order for that to take place, TRH must have standing. He has standing by the following manner;
(1) He heads a political party. That party then can become the negotiating entity sought after by the people who want to form a government. He has none at the moment. AMANAH is an NGO which he heads is not a political party and so, he has no standing to be called in should there be a hung parliament.
(2) He could have a standing on the other hand, if he heads a faction in UMNO with enough numbers to go along with him should he decide to part ways with mother ship UMNO. Right now, I don’t see any number of MPs being with Tengku Razaleigh. Some may agree with his stand and ideas but are always mindful to stay on the side on which the bread is buttered. None are brave enough to be with him while serving as UMNO MPs. Just look as some of the erstwhile comrades who were with Razaleigh before- Shabery Chik for example- who served as TRH’s personal assistant and speech writer sometimes is touching TRH with a 10 foot pole. The minister of Information who used to be the number 2 man in Semangat 46 and who burnt his bridges to cinders is working overtime to make sure everyone knows he has nothing to do with Tengku.
So we can rule out the formation of another political party by Tengku Razaleigh or Tengku having the standing by heading a faction within UMNO.
So why should Tengku Razaleigh be invited at all? In what capacity?
The answer is the hard realities of Malaysian politics.
Let us assume a hung parliament. It can take place when not one single party has the majority in parliament. Anyone party can have the largest number of seats which if it less than 112, can never go on to form the government. Let’s say UMNO comes out with the most seats- 70 from its current 79. It is the party with the largest number.
What happens when the results of the elections come out? The first person or persons to see the Agong will be the chief secretary and possibly the AG because of the constitutional implications. He will look around and inform the Agong, the party that has the largest number is UMNO. The Agong then summons UMNO to inquire whether it can form the government. UMNO looks around; it sees its traditional partners decimated.
It casts its eyes, and sees possibly PBB which probably retains 12 seats. But what if 16 seats are won by the opposition there? PBB has only 3 more seats friendly to offer. Taib Mahmud says, boss I can only offer 15 seats. The other 16 have gone to DAP and PKR and to those who don’t want BN anymore. I can’t gawai and ngajat anymore. It makes me dizzy.
UMNO plus the Sarawak party now has 85 seats. If we are kind enough, let’s say MCA managed to wriggle through with 3 seats- UMNO/BN has 88. MIC delivers 1 seat. Now it has 89.
Out of the 25 seats in Sabah, after excluding UMNO, BN takes another 8. In total now, UMNO and BN have 97 seats. Still not enough ma….
Mana mahu cari? The UMNO president goes on air and proclaims, we can’t form a federal government if we can’t show we are multiracial. Since my macai party MCA has not enough seats, in order to show we are inclusive, 1 Malaysia, multiracial and all that, I now call upon my old friend uncle Kit to join us.
DAP is invited to join the new coalition party. Uncle Kit says- mo-wa thank you. The story we wish we can expand is thus cut short. Uncle Kit and Uncle Karpal say- over my dead body. Nahi!
So UMNO and BN have run out of options and so they say, we can’t form a government. We give up.
Meanwhile Anwar Ibrahim is jumping up and down at the palace gates screaming- I have the number. I have the number! Here- I have a signed declaration from the MPs they want us to form a government. But the paper with the signed names is worthless. You have to test it actually in parliament. Parliament hasn’t yet sat so there’s no way of testing. So Anwar Ibrahim couldn’t pass the palace gates.
He requests for an audience to meet the King along with all the signatories of his paper to show the King he has the number. They all come in Air Asia buses provided by Tony who’s eager to high five with the new rulers.
Anwar can only succeed if he gets an audience. This way has precedence. Zamry Kadir brings all the ADUNs who supported him before Raja Azlan and submitted- Sire, here is the proof that I have more support than Nizar. Until today, we are still debating, whether the meeting with Raja Azlan in his istana, constitutes a dewan siting. But now, BN people cannot say, it doesn’t because that’s how Zambry got to become MB. Anwar is just doing a Zambry when he asks to meet up the Agong.
Anwar Ibrahim who over the years has created animosity with the AG, the Police, and the Chief Secretary is still not given permission to pass the gates to the new Palace. He camps outside the gates- eating his marukku, idlee or apom or whatever he fancies. Maybe he sings a few Hindi songs and does a passable impression of Sivaji the Boss, hurling a knife slicing a speeding bullet in two.
That’s when Tengku Razaleigh comes into the picture. But that my friends will be in another installment.